Why Trump might win.
Trump right now is behind of Joe Biden in the polls despite this I think Joe Biden can win because in America you have to win the electoral college not the popular vote. Biden lead in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennslyvania was smaller than the lead that Hillary Clinton had in 2016.
Also Biden lacks enthusiasm and charisma and is very unpopular with young people who are not really happy with either Trump or Biden and are only voting for Biden because he is better than Trump or is simply not voting at all or voting third party. I think Micheal Moore is right when he suggested that Trump might win.
Biden is basically a male version of Hillary Clinton because he has a similar record to Hillary Clinton. He voted for the Iraq War, supported the bankruptcy bill, sponsered and supported the crime bill and supported NAFTA and the TPP. So I am glad I am not old enough to vote in this election because I live in Iowa and it is a swing state so I would have had to vote for Biden to keep Trump from winning a second term.
If I lived in Massachusetts or Wyoming safe states and was old enough to vote I would have voted for Howie Hawkins disagree with him on many issues and is a bit far left but I think he is better than Biden or Trump.
The reason why Biden won the primary in the first place is because he was viewed as safe and electable because he is uncharismatic and the candidate who was the least likely candidate to offend anyone
His lack of charisma may helped him in the primary but is very harmful in the general because no one is really excited for him.
Biden is also running the same strategy as Hillary did in 2016 he is abandoning the blue collar workers and is instead more focused on getting moderate republicans it turned out that the moderate republicans turned out for Gary Johnson and the blue collar workers turned to Trump.
So Democrats need to stop abandoning the blue collar worker and actually support them when Hillary tried to reach out to moderate republicans the Democrats lost the blue collar workers that voted for Obama twice in Pennslyvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. So Chuck Schumer is wrong when he claimed that for every blue collar voter lost they will gain two or three moderate republicans. Because the Republican base love Trump. Trump has a 90% approval rating from the Republican base
Also the Democrats really don’t care about their base anyways they only care about their own interests and they take money from banks, private health insurance companies, drug companies, oil companies, big food and the military industrial complex just like the Republicans.
I think the best case scenario for Biden is a 335 electoral vote win for Biden with Biden winning North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nebraska 2nd district and Maine 2nd district.
The best case scenario for Trump is a 319 electoral victory for Trump with Trump winning Minnesota and New Hampshire along with the states he won in 2016.
However it is unlikely because both candidates are not really popular at all and are really despised.
My current prediction is that Biden will win 278 electoral votes once all the mail in ballots are counted. With Biden winning Pennslyvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The reason why I think he will win those states is because during 2016 Trump promised to give the two time Obama voters jobs and end the TPP and NAFTA. All he did was get rid of NAFTA and replace it with the USMCA which is very similar provisions to NAFTA and added some provisions to the TPP.
The jobs didn’t come back and the two times Obama voter who voted for Trump will simply not vote for Trump or Biden. So their would be fewer voters than in 2016 and Trump will lose the three states just enough for Biden to barely win after a week of the mail in ballots being counted. So I think Biden will win the same amount of voters as Hillary did in 2016.
However Trump can still win and a Trump victory is a real possibility. Also a Red Mirage is likely to happen so I expect civil unrest and the most controversial election since the 2000 election.
