I predict that Biden will win in 2020. The reason why I think that is because 230,000 people are dead and the economy is in the middle of a recession. So as a result people are not going to want to vote for Trump who has severely mishandled the pandemic.
However, Biden is very boring and lacks enthusiasm or charisma and the only reason why people are voting for him was that they despise Donald Trump. In fact, the reason why Biden won the nomination is that he is boring and moderate and less likely to offend voters.
So I predict a victory for Biden however but only narrowly because of his lack of enthusiasm and charisma or about 300 electoral votes.
I think Trump could have won easily if he handled the Pandemic properly if I was Trump this is what I would have done.
1. Mandate Masks in March
I would have immediately mandated masks by March 10th to ease the spread of the pandemic. Studies have shown that the pandemic would have gone away in two months if everyone in America simply wore a mask.
It has worked in Japan which they didn’t shut down the economy they simply required everyone to wear a mask. As a result, there are only about 1800 deaths compared to 230,000 in the US so since Japan population is only about a third of the US population I estimate that total deaths in the US will be 5000 deaths total far less than 230,000.
Also, there would be no recession since no businesses had to be shut down and school will be online and restaurants can only do takeout. Of course, Trump didn’t do these things and when a policy was proposed to him to give 5 masks to every family he refused because he didn’t want to panic anyone which just shows how selfish he is.
His base will do what he says because his base is a cult and will do anything he says okay it is obvious. If he handled the pandemic well then I think he would win in a landslide and even win the popular vote.
2. Used the Same Methods of Attacks He Used Against Hillary Against Biden.
Trump's attacks against Biden doesn’t land as it did with Hillary. In 2016 Trump attacked Clinton for his vote of the Iraq War vote for the TPP and NAFTA and being corrupt. Instead, Trump is calling Biden a Marxist and Socialist which just doesn’t land because he is against Medicare for All and a GND.
Trump also had multiple nicknames against Biden including Slow Joe, Sleepy Joe. So it is inconsistent and just doesn’t land as well as crooked Hillary. I would have stuck with Lyin Biden because it rhymes and stuck with that.
The only time he attacked Biden with his corruption was with Burisma and Hunter Biden. Especially with the New York Post emails which showed Biden smoking crack and there was also a sex tape about Hunter that was released later. It was mixed with the corruption stuff and didn’t seem credible because of the source of the emails which was Rudi Guiliani unlike with the DNC emails because at the time in 2016 it was unknown who the source was of the emails whatever it may be Seth Rich or the Russians or some other hacker or who Guccifer 2.0 was.
Honestly, I don’t care about the crack or the sex tape and I honestly don’t know why it is a scandal that he smoked crack or recorded a video of him doing the thing with a consenting adult as long as it is an adult I don’t care. I do care about the corruption though even though I haven't looked into much of the New York Post stuff other than the photos.
Some people are saying it is a Russian operation but there is no evidence right now so I don’t think so. I guess since the New York Post is well connected I guess they won’t be called a Russian asset unlike Wikileaks so that is good for them.
Now What is My Prediction
Well I predict Biden will win 305 electoral votes with Biden winning Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennslyvania, Arizona, and Nebraska’s 2nd district. I think Trump will win Florida, Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, and Maines 2nd District with Trump winning 223 electoral votes.
I believe the Democrats will win the Senate Races in North Carolina, Arizona, Maine, Colorado, and Iowa while the Republicans gain Alabama making it a 51–49 Democratic Senate.
For starters, Colorado is a lean democrat and its Senator Cory Gardner is a Republican. Martha McSalley in Arizona is unpopular in her state and despite the sex scandal in the North Carolina Senate race, Cal Cunningham will win.
With Maine it is a Democratic State and Republican Susan Collins even though she used to be a centrist has become increasingly conservative. While with Iowa Theresa Greenfield has been very populist opposing money in politics and is far more likable than Joni Ernst so I think she will win.
In Alabama, it is a red state and its Democratic Senator Doug Jones only won the 2017 special election because of a sex scandal so I think he will lose to Tommy Tuberville.
With the House, the Democrats will retain their majority and the Republicans will gain one gubernatorial seat in Montana.
That is all I have today.