In February 2022 Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and while on the northern front Ukraine has driven the Russians back securing the capital, despite being able to focus all energy on the eastern and southern front they are doing very badly in those places. There are several reasons for that happening. The Ukrainians are having trouble supplying troops in the Donbas and elsewhere which mainly consist of untrained conscripts. So as a result they cannot use weapons properly and have poor discipline. Ukrainian soldiers are also on rations that consist of as little as a potato per day and they also only have light weapons and also have very little proper clothing.
Ukrainian volunteer fighters in the east feel abandoned
Placeholder while article actions load DRUZHKIVKA, Ukraine - Stuck in their trenches, the Ukrainian volunteers lived…
Another reason why Ukraine is doing so badly on the eastern and southern front is that a lot of the population in Ukraine is actually pro-Russia. If you look at the popular vote in elections in these areas they vote more for the Pro Russian parties or candidates than in Northern Ukraine near Kyiv and Kharkiv. This means more people providing logistical support and intelligence to the Russians and sabotaging Ukrainian supply lines. So some people are giving the Russians, and Ukrainian troop movements whenever they can lay their hands on them. In places in Northern Ukraine like Kyiv and Kharkiv, Ukraine tends to do better because the people in those areas are more supportive of the West. In the areas where more people support Russia in the Donbas or Southern Ukraine near Crimea, the Russians tend to do better.
This is not to support the Russian invasion it was never justified no matter what your view is on Nato expansion. I wish the Ukrainians are able to win outright but they can’t do that or neither can the Russians. The rest of the Ukrainian War once the Donbas and the areas falls will be like WWI in Northern France. However, pretending Ukraine is going to kick Russia's butt isn’t wise or helpful.
There is no way Ukraine can realistically regain Donbas or Crimea it is never going to happen without foreign troops. Ukraine is also going to have to provide fresh water to Crimea. Due to the presence of nuclear weapons of both Russia and the US sending foreign troops will be dangerous and terrible which will start WWIII and risk nuclear armageddon which with the former Biden is incapable of handling and the latter will be the end of civilization as we know it.
Despite all that the Russians have many of the same problems the Ukrainians have. They have had trouble supplying their troops and have untrained conscripts and often made stupid mistakes. Russia moves tanks through ruined cities with the guns going straight ahead instead of towards the ruined buildings to deal with anti-tank weapons. This allowed the Ukrainian's anti-tank weapons to strike down many tanks and was a contributing factor to Ukraine's victories on the Northern front.
The sanctions haven’t worked to stop Putin either. All it did was turn the Russian people against the West and allow Putin to blame Russia's problems on the West. The sanctions on Russian oil haven’t worked either. Putin has simply sold more oil to China and India and had more money than before the war. Sanctioning the oligarchs won’t help either when the oligarchs lose money Putin steals money from the Russian people and gives them to the oligarchs to make up for their lost money. He then will turn around and blame the west for causing them to suffer.
Western Move to Choke Russia's Oil Exports Boomerangs, for Now
With China and India buying the Russian oil shunned by the West in an effort to force an end to the Ukraine invasion…
Putin is going to remain in power for the rest of his life or an economic crisis happens that is not caused by Western sanctions. So the question is not how to deal with Putin but how to deal with Russia once Putin is gone but that will be a topic for another time. Though I highly recommend you read this article by a member of the Russian opposition Egor Kotkin I think he makes great and interesting points that people are missing. I would highly recommend people follow Egor Kotkin on Substack, Medium, and on Twitter.
Now the number one priority of the West should be ending the War in Ukraine. To do that the USA and the West as a whole need to do a few things. In return for Ukraine accepting ceding the Donbas to Russia and accepting Russian control of Crimea and allowing Crimea to get water. The US will form a defense treaty with Ukraine that says if Russia ever attacks Ukraine again the US will send troops to Ukraine and the US will also continue to give annual aid to Ukraine to help them rebuild their country. To get Russia to agree to these terms the West and the USA will remove all sanctions in return for a withdrawal from all Ukrainian territories outside Donbas and Ukraine and also allowing Ukraine to join the EU if Ukraine wishes.
There is one problem though Washington is not interested in peace and neither is Moscow without concessions. The United States has the best geopolitical interest to keep the war in Ukraine going for as long as possible in order to weaken Russia. Also, the sending of weapons to Ukraine at this point has become a slush fund for the military-industrial complex so the defense contractors have no interest in ending the war and they have a large majority of Senators and Representatives in their pockets that are not going to happen. If Ukraine decides to sue for peace on its own accord then the US will not be happy about it and refuse to provide any more aid or form any defense treaty with Ukraine leaving it wide open for invasion again. This is why Zelensky has refused to try to diplomatically end the war he knows he will lose his largest sponsor the United States.
So it is clear now that the War in Ukraine will last for years since neither Russia nor Ukraine can outright score a victory, not until we can bring the US oligarchy down can we end the war in Ukraine.
I know I havn’t written in a while I had school and stuff to worry about make sure to follow me on Twitter and the Medium.